Another downwelling Kelvin wave is emerging in the western Pacific Ocean, and westerly wind anomalies are forecasted to recur over the western Pacific. Confidence in the occurrence of El Niño increases into the fall, reflecting the expectation that seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 index values will continue to increase. The most recent IRI plume indicates the continuation of El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the emergence of El Niño conditions. Both the equatorial SOI and traditional SOI were significantly negative. Convection was enhanced along the equator and was suppressed over Indonesia. For the May average, low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies remained positive, reflecting the continuation of widespread anomalous warmth below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were more than +0.5☌: Niño-3.4 was +0.8☌, Niño-3 was +1.1☌, and Niño1+2 was +2.3☌. In May, weak El Niño conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
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